In a move confirming the new willingness to fully enforce the B20 program, the government released the quota attribution for the whole of 2019. All fuel distributors from the non-PSO sector also received volumes, adding a demand of 0.5 million cum/y. The new penalty system should force all operators mentioned in this allocation to perform accordingly next year.
Seventeen biodiesel producers will supply a total of 6.2 million cum of PME to 17 fuel distributors, according to the table below. Pertamina will blend alone 5.3 million cum of PME next year. The numbers are very high and in line with a full implementation of the B20 program. Because the enforcement of the IDR 6’000/lt penalty is putting a lot of pressure on all players, it is likely that the total figure will be reached. That will constitute a massive surge of the local absorption from the estimated 4 million cum in 2018.
The allocation to big producers like Wilmar (1.749 milliom cum!), Musim Mas (754 Kcum), Golden Agri (555 kcum), Apical (467 Kcum) or LDC Indonesia (293 Kcum) looks especially bullish. Assuming that the government will enforce the new regulation with an efficient penalty system, these usual suppliers of the international market will see a large share of their output allocated to the domestic market. In certain cases, the quota allocation is very close to the total production capacity, raising doubts about their ability to supply the volumes in case of unexpected events like technical issues.
